When trying to model how you think someone might perform at a given task, how much attention do you give to what they have professional experience with in the past?
Probe #1
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I think past performance is usually a good predictor of how someone will perform at future endeavours, but there are always a lot of factors to keep in mind. For example, if you quit your job when you were 17 to go to a concert because you couldn't get the night off, that doesn' tnecessarily mean you'd do the same thing when you're 22, or 28, or whatever. Granted, aged does not equal maturity, either. SO...past experience should be given some weight, but current factors should also come into play.
'Professional' means 'they convinced somebody that they were good enough at something to get paid for it'; this depends a lot on _who_ they convinced to pay them. I've known professionals that were utter yutzes and hobbyists that were utterly brilliant; your milage may vary.